Karachi-(Staff Reporter)-Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) reached an all-time high on Friday, crossing the 93,000-point mark, driven by energy stocks and economic optimism. The benchmark KSE-100 Shares Index surged by 771.20 points or 0.88% to 93,291 points, after hitting an intraday high of 93,514 points ¹.
Analysts attribute this rally to strong cash flows and payouts in the energy sector, as well as lower government bond yields, which have fueled expectations of further rate cuts. This optimism is also driven by the central bank’s anticipated relaxation of its monetary stance before the year-end.
Khurram Schehzad, CEO of Alpha Beta Core, said that investors were riding the wave of economic optimism set off by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) by extending its hawkish monetary policy on November 4 as inflationary pressures were easing.
“There are expectations of a policy rate cut of up to 400 basis points by December, as the room for easing exists,” Schehzad said, hinting that the SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could revise rates downward before the end of this year.
Schehzad further said that the current bullish trend could largely be attributed to the extension of the central bank’s rate-easing cycle.
The SBP cut its key policy rate by a record 250 basis points to 15%, exceeding expectations, as the country bid to revive a sluggish economy amid a big drop in the rate of inflation.
The central bank justified the rate cut, stating that the current monetary policy stance is suitable to achieve price stability and maintain inflation within the 5-7% target range.
“This will also support macroeconomic stability and help achieve economic growth on a sustainable basis,” it said.
Saad Ali, Director of Research at Intermarket Securities, told Geo.tv that current optimism was driven by the oil and gas stocks owing to their strong cash flows and payouts.
“Yesterday’s Sukuk auction in which one-year FRD (fixed-rate discounted) yield fell to 10.99%, raising expectations of accelerated rate cuts down the line, which also boosted investors’ morale,” Ali added.
The government raised Rs331.7 billion through an auction of Sukuk bonds on the PSX, surpassing its target of Rs300 billion for the 15th Government of Pakistan Ijarah Sukuk (GIS) auction, which attracted substantial interest, with bids reaching Rs 875.22 billion.
The cut-off yields for the FRD and fixed rental rate (FRR) Sukuk saw a marked decrease.
The one-year FRD yield dropped 76 basis points to 10.99%. In the FRR category, cut-off yields fell to 11.5% for the three-year (-50bps), 12.1% for the five-year (-43bps), and 11.7% for the 10-year (-104bps) Sukuk bonds.
Ahsan Mehanti from Arif Habib Corp said stocks hit a new all-time high as part of a broader bull run in global equities, supported by MSCI’s revised standard index weight of 4.4%, which is attracting foreign interest.
“Falling bank lending rates and declining government bond yields have been key catalysts, driving record bullish activity at the PSX,” Mehanti added seconding Saad Ali’s analysis.
