Lula Fourth Term: Historic Win Halts Right-Wing Wave in Brazil

Brazil – (Special Correspondent/Web Desk) – The Lula fourth term is now official. Brazil’s electoral court announced on Sunday that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the runoff. The result surprised many people because the polls and recent trends pointed the other way.

Lula defeated Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio had finished first in the opening round. He hoped to bring his father’s far-right movement back to power.

The win puts the brakes on a wave of right-wing victories across Latin America. It also makes Lula the first candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s to win after finishing second in the first round.

At 80, Lula has made many comebacks. He was jailed from 2018 to 2019 on corruption charges, which were later overturned. That opened the door for him to beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

His latest campaign was not easy. Many voters had grown tired of him and his Workers’ Party after corruption scandals and rising prices. Some also felt he was out of touch with the app-based economy and its growing number of informal workers.

Pollsters say better-than-expected turnout helped Lula win. One analyst said voters picked the familiar path over the new one. In his view, people chose a known route that protects certain rights over change that comes with worry.

Lula also pointed to his record. He said poverty and inequality fell, and he noted that unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation hit record lows in his third term.

He warned that Bolsonaro would cut welfare and roll back social progress. He also said Bolsonaro would hand Brazil’s sovereignty to US President Donald Trump. The US State Department had pushed to bring the Bolsonaros back to power.

Late in the race, Lula made new promises. One was free public transport on weekends across the country, which must still go to Congress. Another was a 15% rise in his well-known welfare program, which is already under way.

Lula’s win is also a setback for Trump. It stops a growing group of friendly right-wing governments in the region that have backed Washington on security and migration. A former Lula foreign minister said the leader helps bring balance to Latin America.

Even so, the road ahead looks hard. Brazil has just elected its most conservative Congress since the 1980s. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and its allies could hold more than 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 in the Senate.

That would give them comfortable majorities in both chambers. One professor of international relations said Lula could be a lame duck from the start. He expects Lula to have less say over Supreme Court picks and to face messy party deals and even the risk of impeachment.

The economy is another big test. The government expects growth of only 2.3% next year. Public debt has climbed above 82% of GDP, the highest level since the pandemic.

Critics blame government spending, though high interest costs drove most of the rise. Goldman Sachs expects only modest efforts to control spending, as Lula sticks to a state-led growth plan.

Household debt is also a worry. During the campaign, Lula brought in a temporary ban on online betting and launched a new debt relief program.

The new Congress is expected to push reforms that favor business. Experts warn that the resulting spending cuts could fuel social unrest.

For now, Lula has once again proved his critics wrong. The Lula fourth term gives him another chance to deliver for workers and poor families, but he will need to work hard to get anything through a hostile Congress.