China – (Special Correspondent/Web Desk) – China export growth 36.3% in September caught many experts by surprise. Customs data released on Wednesday showed that buyers abroad kept ordering, even while families at home held back on spending.
Analysts had expected a rise of about 25.5%. The real number was much higher. It also beat August’s 25.0% gain and was the fastest pace since February, when exports grew 39.6%.
Imports rose sharply too. They jumped 31.0% in September, compared with 28.2% a month earlier. Economists had predicted a gain of only 24.5%.
For a second year, exports have stayed strong despite pressure from Western countries. Many of them want more balanced trade with China. Yet orders keep coming, and factories keep running.
The trade surplus shows the same trend. In the first nine months of the year, it reached $938.11 billion. China could pass the $1 trillion mark sooner than last year, unless exports fall sharply in the final three months. That looks unlikely for now.
There is one cloud on the horizon. China and the European Union recently agreed to limit Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the bloc. Over time, this could slow China’s fast-growing car trade.
However, the EU is expected to lay out its trade measures in December. Because of that, exporters may rush to send more cars before the deadline.
Relations with the United States brought some relief. After President Xi Jinping met President Donald Trump in Washington in September, both sides agreed to extend their tariff truce. They also agreed to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods each.
Technology is another bright spot. Countries around the world keep building AI infrastructure, and there is little sign of a slowdown. Analysts expect steady demand for Chinese tech products, including semiconductors.
Prices tell a mixed story. Factory-gate prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years in September. Consumer inflation also edged up, but it came in lower than expected. This shows the recovery is still uneven.
Even so, strong exports may reduce the need for big new support. Officials could rely on moderate steps to reach this year’s growth target of 4.5% to 5%.
On Thursday, the Canton Fair opens. It is China’s largest trade show, and it lets manufacturers display their products to buyers from around the world. Good orders there could add to the export momentum.
Still, risks remain. Washington and Brussels blame China’s industrial and monetary policies for its huge trade surplus. Both could try new limits on Chinese goods.
China’s central bank answered last week with a long statement. It said it has never tried to weaken the yuan on purpose to gain a trade edge, and it rejected claims that the currency is kept artificially low.
Exports are now a key engine of growth. If this sector takes a big hit, leaders may have to step up stimulus to deal with weak local demand and the property market slump that has lasted for years.
For now, though, the September numbers give China a strong start to the last quarter of the year.
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