Climate Change Threatens Agriculture in AJK

Adaptive research highlights the urgent need for climate-resilient farming practices

Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing threats to agriculture in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), where rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods, droughts, and increasing pest outbreaks are disrupting crop production and rural livelihoods. The region’s agriculture is particularly vulnerable because of its dependence on rainfall and fragile mountainous farming systems.

Over the past few years, AJK has witnessed significant climate variability, including prolonged dry spells, irregular monsoon patterns, and sudden temperature fluctuations. These changes have adversely affected both Rabi and Kharif crops such as wheat, maize, rice, and vegetables, resulting in lower productivity and greater uncertainty for farmers.

Meteorological observations from Garhi Dupatta during 2025 reveal a highly uneven distribution of rainfall. Peak precipitation was recorded in July (280.5 mm) and August (245 mm), while January and November received only 20.7 mm and 18 mm of rainfall respectively. Such imbalance created severe moisture stress during the Rabi season and excess water conditions during the monsoon months, both of which negatively impacted crop growth and yield formation.

To evaluate the extent of these impacts, the Training and Adaptive Research Unit (TARU), Garhi Dupatta, conducted adaptive research trials at the ADR Farm in 2025 on major crops including wheat, maize, rice, soybean, mung bean, okra, and ginger. Despite following recommended agronomic practices, yields remained comparatively low because of climate-induced stresses such as heat waves, irregular rainfall, and water imbalance.

The findings were significant. Maize yielded 180 kg per kanal, rice 65 kg, soybean 20 kg, ginger 45 kg, and okra 395 kg per kanal. Among wheat varieties, NARC Super performed comparatively better with a yield of 153 kg per kanal. The results clearly indicate that climate variability is now a major limiting factor for agricultural productivity in AJK.

A spring maize trial conducted in Garhi Dupatta further highlighted the growing challenge. The trial, sown on April 14, 2025, tested two maize varieties — Sarhad White and Qayyum-2018 under low-lying conditions of Muzaffarabad. Initially, the crop performed well under favorable weather conditions. However, during the grain-filling stage from mid-June to early July, temperatures rose sharply between 38.5°C and 43°C, severely affecting grain development.

Out of 105 maize cobs observed during the trial, only 70 were fully filled with grains, while the remaining cobs were partially developed due to heat stress. Nevertheless, Sarhad White showed comparatively better resilience and produced 180 kg per kanal, indicating the importance of selecting climate-tolerant varieties for future cultivation.

Climate change is also intensifying evapotranspiration, reducing soil moisture availability during critical crop growth stages such as wheat grain filling, maize tasseling, and rice development. At the same time, changing weather patterns are accelerating pest and disease outbreaks and contributing to soil degradation, further threatening agricultural sustainability in the region.

To address these growing challenges, climate-smart agricultural practices must be promoted across AJK. The Training and Adaptive Research Unit is already designing crop trials with optimized sowing dates and adaptive management strategies to develop recommendations for farmers under changing climatic conditions.

Farmers should be encouraged to cultivate heat, drought, and disease-tolerant crop varieties, alongside climate-resilient crops such as millets, pulses, and improved oilseeds. Crop rotation systems, particularly cereal-legume combinations, can improve soil fertility, enhance nutrient cycling, and reduce pest incidence.

Efficient water management practices are equally important. Rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, sprinkler systems, and small-scale water storage structures can help farmers cope with increasing water scarcity. Adjusting sowing schedules according to seasonal weather forecasts can also reduce crop exposure to extreme climatic conditions.

In hilly areas, soil conservation measures such as contour farming, terracing, mulching, and cover cropping are essential to prevent erosion and conserve soil moisture. Integrated pest management practices should also be strengthened to minimize climate-induced pest outbreaks while reducing excessive pesticide use.

At the institutional level, strengthening the role of TARU and agricultural extension services is critical for developing and disseminating climate-resilient technologies. Timely weather forecasting, farmer training programs, crop insurance schemes, and government support for climate adaptation can significantly enhance agricultural resilience in AJK.

Climate change is no longer a future concern for the region it is already affecting crop productivity, water resources, and rural livelihoods. The adaptive research findings from AJK clearly demonstrate the urgent need for climate-resilient crop technologies and sustainable management practices to safeguard food security and protect farming communities in the years ahead.

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