China’s Balancing Act

DTD-May 22, 2024

6 minutes read

Written by: Taha Ikram, NDU, Isb

Article: China’s Balancing Act: Navigating Security, Resources, and Legitimacy in its Recognition of the Taliban Regime

China’s recognition of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan necessitates a careful balance between security interests, resource access, and maintaining diplomatic credibility.

INTRODUCTION

Afghanistan, which has a 76-kilometer border with China, was a low-key country in Chinese foreign policy until the late 1970s. When Soviet Union (Russia) invaded Afghanistan, China considered it as a grave threat to the security of her western borders. From the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, China and Afghanistan’s Mujahideen engaged in a brief military cooperation under CIA and Pakistan’s management. Following Russia’s exit from Afghanistan in February 1989 and until the commencement of the Afghan Civil War, China had a neutral posture on Afghan problems.

After the incident of 9/11, China took advantage of the opportunity to combine its operations against separatist tendencies with those against Afghan extremists.

However, not pledging any military cooperation with the US or NATO/ISAF forces in Afghanistan, China remained concerned that the presence of foreign forces should not be prolonged. With the establishment of the provisional government under Karzai as the President of Afghanistan in late 2001, China maintained diplomatic contact with Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, until the first announcement of US under the Obama administration in 2009 that the US forces will end their combat mission in Afghanistan in 2012, the Sino-Afghan interaction was limited to exploration, small-scale economic projects, and humanitarian efforts. From 2001 to 2013, Beijing provided nearly 1.5 billion yuan (approximately $240 million) in financial aid to Afghanistan. China gave Afghanistan an observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in June 2012.

China’s Shifting Stance in Post-2014 Scenario in Afghanistan

In the post-2014 situation, when the United States finally confirmed that it would withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan, the intensification in the bilateral relations between China and Afghanistan became obvious, given the commencing of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative in 2013,3 which was later replaced with Belt and Road Initiative. One of the significant reasons for China’s keen interest in Afghanistan in the post-US and NATO forces withdrawal scenario is that the security calculus should not be disturbed as it can directly disrupt the BRI,particularly its two major projects i.e. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China Central Asia-West Asia Corridor which have direct geographical proximity with Afghanistan.

To take part in the regional initiatives aimed to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region at large, from 2014 to 2016, China actively participated in several initiatives meant to ensure an ‘Afghan-led and Afghan owned’ reconciliatory process. In this regard, China’s chairmanship of the Conference on International Cooperation in Asia (CICA), Istanbul Process in October 2014 – also known as the Heart of Asia, held from 2014-2016 – was the most significant initiative. This conference witnessed the participation of 46 countries and international organizations, with the United States attending as a “supporting nation.” During the opening ceremony, Premier Li Keqiang illustrated that the Chinese side resolved the Afghan issue by;

Continue to firmly adhere to the friendly policy towards Afghanistan,
Support Afghanistan in promoting peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction process,

Help Afghanistan in capacity building and integration into regional cooperation (“The Fourth Foreign Ministerial Conference,” 2014).

Economic Incentives

Afghanistan is an underdeveloped country with vast natural resources, in particular, lithium, cobalt, copper, gold, natural gas, coal, and oil. The country has 16 trillion cubic feet of gas, 500 billion barrels of liquified natural gas, and 1.6 trillion barrels of crude oil, per the U.S. Geological Survey.

The total estimated value of Afghanistan’s natural resources is $1 trillion, which was a source of attraction for China after the U.S.’s exit. Due to its growing domestic energy demand and tight global supplies since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, China is concerned about both energy security and access and wants to explore new options in addition to producing clean energy.

Moreover, given Afghanistan’s geographic location along the BRI, it is a vital state for China’s efforts to develop both Central Asia and its Western territory. As a result, Chinese efforts in the Afghan peace process aimed to foster stability in Afghanistan, which would ultimately serve China’s economic and strategic interests. In a meeting with his counterparts from Afghanistan and Pakistan, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “We will jointly build the Belt and Road Initiative, extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan, and help Afghanistan participate in regional connectivity”.

The PRC has not been forthcoming with aid, but Beijing has still sought to economically bolster the Taliban in other ways. For example, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, the PRC announced a tariff waiver on 98 percent of Afghan goods The PRC statement further read: “China hopes to push the alignment of the Belt and Road Initiative with the development strategies of Afghanistan, support the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan, and share China’s development opportunities.” China also resumed the issuance of visas to Afghan nationals.

China’s Security Interests in Afghanistan

China has been cautious toward Afghanistan due to concerns that insecurity there could spill over into Xinjiang, which has a large ethnic minority Muslim population that has been subject to increasing state control and repression over the past decade. One of the reasons that China supported the U.S. war in Afghanistan, which began in late 2001, was the activities of militant groups there that threatened China’s security. According to Andrew Small, an expert on China’s involvement in South Central Asia at the German Marshall Fund, “The U.S. presence was understood as a geopolitical threat, much like the Soviet military presence in the 1980s, but Beijing had grown to see it as the lesser of two evils.”

In an effort to mitigate the regional security challenges it faces, Beijing has been constantly engaged with the Taliban since the group established a political office in Doha, Qatar in 2013. A month after the Taliban captured Kabul, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting was held in mid-September 2021, wherein Chinese president Xi Jinping reiterated: “We need to follow the journey of upholding our common security. We need to pursue common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and take tough actions against the “three forces” of terrorism, separatism and extremism, including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement”. Beijing wants to promote a more moderate Taliban in Kabul who can run the country effectively and extricate Afghanistan from its economic crisis through engagement with the outside world. However, promoting a functioning government in Kabul is also motivated by China’s desire to hold the Taliban to its promise not to allow Afghan soil to be used by terrorist and extremist groups. China is reportedly providing drones to the Taliban in order to strengthen their capacity to neutralize their opponents.

China’s Broader Strategic Interests in Afghanistan

China’s engagement with Afghanistan in general, and the Taliban in particular, has intensified over the last decade. China has long promoted economic development as the cornerstone of achieving a peaceful, stable Afghanistan, but its strategic interests in the country cannot be overlooked.

In the long run, China has adopted a diplomatic and developmental posture to secure its strategic interests in Afghanistan. In 2014, China appointed Sun Yuxi as its special envoy for Afghanistan in an effort “to step up the communication with Afghanistan and all parties concerned and safeguard lasting peace, stability and development of Afghanistan and the region.”

Furthermore, due to its strategic location, Afghanistan has great importance in China’s strategic calculus. Afghanistan is key to China’s Belt and Road Initiative because it lies at the crossroads of three regions: South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East Beijing recognizes that its long-term strategic objectives cannot be met unless Afghanistan is stable and peaceful, with an emphasis on economic development. Unlike the West, China has not thrown its weight behind democracy in Afghanistan but does share the international community’s interest in achieving a stable Afghanistan.

Conclusion

China’s post-9/11 interest in Afghanistan has intensified since the U.S. departure last year. Much of this interest stems from Beijing’s desire that Afghanistan achieve peace and stability so that it ceases to be a hub for terrorist and militant groups. For its part, the Taliban government has high expectations that China can provide sorely needed economic aid and political support. Moreover, the Taliban expect China to extend diplomatic recognition. Despite the close engagement between the Taliban and China over the last decade, whether such a move is forthcoming is uncertain. The efforts by China to promote peace over the last decade demonstrate that Beijing understands that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan is integral to its broader political, economic, and strategic interests.

China’s Balancing Act