OPEC+ expected to raise August oil output quotas

ISLAMABAD: (News Desk) – Seven members of OPEC+ are expected to approve an increase in oil production quotas for August during an online meeting on Sunday, as Gulf producers begin recovering from disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and three other members are likely to continue reversing earlier production cuts. Analysts expect the group to raise output by around 188,000 barrels per day, although actual production may remain below the approved targets.

Oil production in the Gulf was badly affected after Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted maritime traffic and restricted oil exports for several months. OPEC data shows that combined output from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait fell by nearly six million barrels per day between the first quarter of 2026 and May.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has started to recover after Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 aimed at removing barriers to maritime movement during negotiations. Oil prices have also declined sharply as markets anticipate a gradual return to normal supplies.

Analysts believe production recovery will take time because restarting shut-in oil fields cannot happen immediately. July is expected to show an improvement, while output is likely to rise more significantly in August if shipping conditions remain stable.

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However, OPEC+ could face pressure from lower prices next year, with analysts warning of a possible global oil surplus. Iraq has already sought higher production quotas to compensate for losses suffered during the conflict, while the group is expected to review members’ production capacities and quotas later this year.