The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on Thursday that 2024 is “virtually certain” to surpass 2023 as the hottest year globally since record-keeping began. This announcement comes just ahead of the COP29 climate summit, which will take place next week in Azerbaijan, where nations will negotiate increased funding to combat climate change. The recent U.S. presidential election outcome, with Donald Trump’s victory, has reportedly dampened hopes for the summit’s outcomes.
C3S data shows that from January through October, global average temperatures have been unusually high, making 2024 likely to be the warmest year on record unless a significant drop occurs in the final months. “Climate change is fundamentally behind this year’s temperature record,” said C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “The climate is warming across all continents and ocean basins, making record-breaking temperatures inevitable.”
This year will also mark the first time that the planet’s average temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels of 1850-1900, when large-scale fossil fuel burning began. Climate scientist Sonia Seneviratne from ETH Zurich noted that the milestone highlights the urgent need for governments at COP29 to accelerate the transition away from CO2-emitting fossil fuels.
“The temperature targets set in the Paris Agreement are increasingly threatened by the slow pace of global climate action,” Seneviratne commented. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid severe climate impacts, though C3S now projects this goal could be exceeded by around 2030.
The consequences of each fraction of temperature increase are becoming evident. In October, extreme weather events such as flash floods in Spain, widespread wildfires in Peru, and devastating floods in Bangladesh had significant impacts, including a spike in food prices after over a million tons of rice were destroyed. In the United States, Hurricane Milton’s severity was also worsened by human-driven climate change.
The C3S temperature records, starting in 1940, are corroborated by global temperature data extending back to 1850.
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