India’s sudden release of water into the rivers of Sutlej, Ravi, and Chenab and now into the Jhelum has rung new alarm bells for Pakistan. Within just a few days, four major rivers have seen unexpected discharges of water. This clearly demonstrates that the phenomenon is not the result of any natural calamity, but rather part of a calculated strategy what many experts rightly describe as “water aggression.”
India has discharged more than 90,000 cusecs of water into the Jhelum, pushing the Mangla Dam close to its maximum capacity. In response, WAPDA was compelled to open emergency spillways to prevent damage to the dam. This sudden release has triggered medium-scale flooding in the lower reaches of the Jhelum and Chenab. Districts such as Mirpur, Kotli, Bhimber, Mandi Bahauddin, and parts of the Gujranwala Division have been affected. Standing crops have been submerged, and thousands of residents have been forced to evacuate to safer locations.
Furthermore, according to the latest verified reports, India has released a massive, unannounced quantity of water from the Salal Dam into Pakistan. This surge is advancing rapidly downstream, and the coming twenty-four hours are both crucial and perilous. Owing to this fresh Indian maneuver, the risk of widespread devastation has significantly intensified as floodwaters push swiftly toward Sindh.
This is not a new situation. Despite the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, India has repeatedly manipulated its dam policies to exert pressure on the rivers allotted to Pakistan. Under the Treaty, control of the Sutlej and Ravi was ceded to India, while the Jhelum and Chenab were secured for Pakistan. Yet, India has constructed projects such as Uri, Baglihar, and Kishanganga, enabling it to exert effective control over these rivers. It can withhold water at will or release it abruptly plunging Pakistan alternately into drought or flood. This, defense analysts argue, is precisely the strategy of “water warfare” or “water aggression.”
For Pakistan, however, the greater danger lies not only in India’s hostile actions but also in its own internal weaknesses. Our water storage capacity is critically limited. To this day, Pakistan has only two major dams Tarbela and Mangla capable of significant storage. The country can store water for just 30 days, compared to India’s 220 days, the United States’ 900 days, and Egypt’s 1,000 days. Consequently, 30 to 40 million acre-feet of water is wasted annually, flowing into the sea unused.
Experts have long warned that after 2025, Pakistan risks shifting from a “water-scarce state” to a “water-famine country.” Current per capita water availability has already dropped to 850 cubic meters. If the trend persists, within the next decade it will fall below 500 cubic meters the international threshold of absolute water scarcity.
The crisis is compounded by climate change, which has rendered rainfall patterns increasingly unpredictable. At times, record-breaking rains inundate rivers within days, causing floods, while at other times, prolonged dry spells bring severe shortages. Without large reservoirs and a modern flood management system, this cycle of disaster will repeat itself every year.
The recent floods have further exposed glaring weaknesses: embankments left unrepaired for years, the absence of early-warning systems, and a lack of coordination between disaster management authorities and irrigation departments. In stark contrast, India enjoys complete control over water flows through its network of dams and barrages.
Pakistan today stands at two inevitable fronts: internal and external. On the domestic front, projects such as Diamer-Bhasha, Mohmand, Dasu, and even Kalabagh must be expedited without delay. Modern irrigation methods must be adopted to conserve the nearly 50% of agricultural water that is currently wasted. Rainwater harvesting must be introduced in urban centers, and strict regulations enforced to safeguard underground aquifers.
On the external front, Pakistan must bring India’s violations of the Indus Waters Treaty before the World Bank, the International Court of Justice, and the United Nations. Mere statements and protests are insufficient; serious legal recourse is imperative. If India continues to undermine the spirit of the Treaty through its dam policies, Pakistan’s only option will be to mobilize the international community.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif aptly observed in a recent meeting: “Water is no longer merely an agricultural or economic issue; it has become a matter of national security.” Similarly, General Asim Munir has made it clear: “Defense is not limited to guarding our borders; ensuring the secure flow of our rivers is equally a war for national survival.”
The truth is that our negligence is more dangerous than the enemy’s hostility. If we fail today to build new dams, modernize irrigation systems, and curb wastage, future generations will not forgive us. This is no longer a war of guns it is a war of water. And the decision rests with us today: shall we condemn our children to thirst, or shall we secure for them a safe and sustainable future?
(By Dr. Muhammad Tayyab Khan Singhanvi, Ph.D)
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