Pakistan & Water Security in South Asia

Pakistan & Water Security in South Asia
As the horrors of Climate Change unfold, water can be a critical driver of peace and stability not surprisingly, in South Asia prospect varies, it is a potential source of increased tension between hostile boundaries. Nonetheless, ensuring the security of natural resources, for geographically and socio-economically vulnerable neighbours, stands as a productive sector for trans-border cooperation. However, an inclusive, collective and sustainable approach to managing major Himalayan River systems and building climate resilience demands multilateral collaboration over confrontation.
Water security is of multidimensional nature which impacts human safety, survival and growth aspects while increasing economic and geopolitical tensions significantly in a volatile region like south Asia. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability earlier this year highlighted vulnerable, at-risk regions to the changes in the water cycle, marking South Asia one of them.
A 2020 report by the World Wide Fund for Nature predicts “grave water risk” by 2050, particularly in India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, due to its demographics, water-related problems are more acute in Asia.
South Asia hosts international river basins and is subject to territorial disputes among neighbouring hostile countries. Water disarrangements and scarcity, coupled with the phenomenon of global warming, could possibly lead to a situation of conflict and crisis. Although the supply of water has always been a crucial concern related to the territorial integrities of both sides, tensions tend to become more palpable in upcoming years of scarcity.
A study conducted under the title “Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers” demonstrated accelerated melting of glaciers to result in Indus flow reduction by eight percent in 2050. It will result in a critically low groundwater level and agricultural crisis due to water shortage in both India and Pakistan. Such climate-induced environmental scarcities affect society and act as stressors that manifest geopolitical conflict.
The history of conflict between India and Pakistan is already chronic. This scarcity will only aggravate the conflict while encouraging competition between two countries leading to war, conflict or confrontation. PM Modi’s statement ‘blood & water can’t flow together at the same time was a clear manifestation of a mindset based on prejudices, closing windows for problem-based interest relations.
Climate-induced scarcity and water stressors could lead to a situation irreversible and of terrible ramifications not only for these two countries but in South Asia. Lack of cooperation and direction on the future of hydro-governance depicts uncertainty. The only successful Indus Water Treat (IWT) faces “unsubstantiate” criticism. The authority and survival of IWT are threatened although The World Bank describes the framework for developing regions as “one of the most successful international treaties” as it survived recurrent tensions but it has failed to encompass emerging realities.
The IWT, signed in 1960 may have worked in the past, but may not work in the future as climate change can significantly impact the waterways’ environment. The threat of climate change leading to changing conditions of rivers warrants an immediate need to update and to re-negotiate the IWT.
It is critically alarming that while international communities are aware of the significance of sustainable use and sharing of resources, neither India nor Pakistan is a signatory of the Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses.
Therefore, IWT needs structural and technical reforms by joint effort focusing on similarities rather than sticking to political rigidities and inefficiencies. Approaching the conflict through the lens of climate change which is a common threat will allow both states to reach mutually beneficial positions. Rethinking the old development and cooperation model which allowed structurally heavy engineering approaches in disregarding of socio-environmental consequences and the science of hydrology that is continuity of waters can allow sustainable, regenerative and adaptive regional development with an integrated approach.
Besides, Pakistan domestically also needs to show good progress in water-related disaster security. Water governance for internal management, building dams, improving domestic water management, and encouraging less water-intensive crops, is as necessary as water diplomacy.
There is a need to find a more cooperative approach to address the shared concern of the future of water instead of stalemate, hydro-politicization and fear of strategic use. Therefore, the discussion on water issues needs to go beyond bilateral negotiations in order to examine the ways through which the region can adapt emerging interests and manage needs as per resources. We need to prepare now before the consequences become visible in the form of security and survival challenges. Pakistan’s diplomatic success at COP27 is a hope and a call for setting the consensus by cross-border hydro-diplomacy to ease the unprecedented water crisis in South Asia.

by: Wardah Rehman