Iran leadership remains stable despite conflict, US intelligence reports

US intelligence – (Web Desk) – US intelligence officials say Iran’s leadership is still mostly intact. They believe the government is not likely to collapse anytime soon. This comes after nearly two weeks of heavy air strikes by the United States and Israel. Three people familiar with the intelligence reports shared this information.

One source said several intelligence reports show the same view. The reports say the Iranian government is still stable and remains in control of the public. The latest assessment was prepared only a few days ago.

Meanwhile, pressure is rising in the United States because of increasing oil prices. President Donald Trump has said he hopes to end the large military operation soon. It is the biggest US military action since 2003. However, ending the conflict may not be easy if Iran’s hardline leaders continue to stay in power.

The reports also show that Iran’s leadership has stayed united even after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was killed on February 28, the first day of the US and Israeli attacks.

Israeli officials have also privately admitted that the war may not lead to the fall of Iran’s government. A senior Israeli official shared this view with Reuters.

Sources also warned that the situation can still change. Events inside Iran may develop in different ways. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency did not comment on the report.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the US intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior leaders, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a fourth source familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops into Iran.

Intelligence suggests Kurds lack firepower to fight Iran

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organised inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive US support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of US and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent US intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and US lawmakers for the US to provide them with weapons and armoured vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.