Global Oil Supply to Exceed Demand in Fourth Quarter, Says IEA
Higher Gulf exports push the oil market into surplus in October, though diesel remains tight and prices stay above pre-war levels.
Global oil supply has moved ahead of demand for the first time since the Iran war began, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Paris-based agency shared the finding in its monthly report on Friday.
The IEA expects supply to stay higher than demand in the fourth quarter. It called this a tentative sign that the oil market is finding balance again.
The change came from rising Gulf exports. Shipments reached 18.4 million barrels per day in October. That is still 26 percent below pre-war levels, but it is a clear step up.
Attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped. Even so, more ships are now willing to take the risky route under US escort. Iran had effectively closed the strait in the early months of the war, which began in late February.
Oil supply rose by three million barrels per day in September. It then grew by another 2.3 million barrels in October. Prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks as a result.
Demand is moving in the opposite direction. The IEA says global demand will fall by 2.7 million barrels per day this year. Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, and that is pushing people toward electric cars and more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Diesel is still the biggest worry. Its price stood at $180 per barrel in October, about 77 percent higher than before the war. Iran struck refineries in nearby Gulf countries accused of helping US attacks. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and energy sites are also cutting diesel supply.
The IEA said tight product supply, especially diesel, remains the main concern for the wider market and for consumers.
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