China’s new mega dam sparks fears of looming water conflict

China – India – (Special Correspondent / Web Desk) – India is raising alarm over China’s plan to build the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet, fearing it could drastically cut water flows into the Brahmaputra River during dry months.

According to an internal government analysis and multiple sources familiar with the matter, New Delhi estimates that China’s dam could reduce dry-season flows by as much as 85%.

The Brahmaputra, which originates in the Angsi Glacier and is called the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet and Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, sustains more than 100 million people across China, India, and Bangladesh.

In response, India is fast-tracking its own massive project — the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam. If built, it would be India’s largest hydropower dam and a safeguard against any potential diversion or sudden water surges from China.

With a proposed storage of 14 billion cubic metres, the project could help stabilise water supply during non-monsoon months and reduce damage from floods.

Indian officials say the dam would secure water for critical cities like Guwahati, which rely heavily on farming and water-intensive industries. The project is also being positioned as a buffer in case Beijing ever decides to weaponise water flows across the disputed border region.

But India’s plans face strong opposition at home. Many residents of Arunachal Pradesh, particularly from the Adi community, fear that villages, farms, and centuries-old ways of life would be submerged.

In May, protests against survey work turned violent, with locals damaging equipment and blocking access roads.

At least 16 villages could be lost to the dam’s storage area, directly affecting around 10,000 people and impacting more than 100,000 overall. Community members say their fertile farmland of paddy, oranges, cardamom, and citrus fruits is the backbone of their survival.

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Despite this resistance, state officials argue that the project is necessary for India’s water security, especially given China’s aggressive plans upstream. Talks of compensation, relocation, and development packages are ongoing, though distrust remains high.

While Beijing has already broken ground on its $170 billion project, which could start generating power by the 2030s, India is still stuck in the approval and survey stage. Even if cleared, the Upper Siang dam could take more than a decade to build.

Experts warn that both mega dams sit in a highly seismic and climate-sensitive zone, making them vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, and flash floods. “It’s not just a geopolitical issue—it’s also about safety and survival for millions downstream,” said Sayanangshu Modak, an expert on India-China water relations.

For now, India finds itself caught between two urgent realities: countering China’s growing influence on shared rivers and addressing the fears of its own people at risk of displacement.