Webdesk: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday, marking the first stop of a broader Middle East tour aimed at rekindling Gaza ceasefire discussions and addressing the future of the region following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. However, with the U.S. election looming, a breakthrough seems unlikely.
This is Blinken’s 11th visit to the region since Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on October 7, sparking the Gaza conflict. The visit coincides with Israel intensifying its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, where it is targeting Hezbollah forces aligned with Iran.
During his week-long tour, Blinken will visit Jordan on Wednesday and Doha as well, amid growing tensions in the region, including concerns over Israel’s potential response to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile strike. Such retaliation could affect oil markets and heighten the risk of full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
In Gaza, Blinken’s focus will be on ending the conflict and discussing plans for the enclave’s future, as well as improving humanitarian aid, according to a senior State Department official. Last week, Blinken, along with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, urged Israeli officials to address the worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza or face possible restrictions on U.S. military assistance.
The meetings will address “day after” issues, particularly regarding security, governance, and reconstruction of Gaza. Blinken will also engage with Israeli and regional leaders on finding a diplomatic solution to the tensions with Hezbollah and on Israel’s potential response to Iran’s missile attack.
Breakthrough Unlikely
Experts are skeptical about any major developments, with deep divisions between Hamas and Israel, particularly as the U.S. presidential election on November 5 approaches. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that neither side appears eager to compromise. “It’s hard to imagine Blinken achieving a breakthrough this week,” he said, as both Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are in no rush to end the conflict.
The Biden administration viewed Sinwar’s death at the hands of Israeli forces last week as a potential turning point to end the Gaza war, but Netanyahu has emphasized that military operations will continue. Israel is ramping up efforts to push Hezbollah forces away from its northern border while continuing its operations in Gaza, particularly in the Jabalia refugee camp, raising concerns that northern Gaza could be cut off from the rest of the enclave.
U.S. Elections and Future Policy
Some analysts suggest that Netanyahu may be waiting until after U.S. President Joe Biden’s term ends in January, hoping for more favorable conditions under a new U.S. administration, whether led by Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump. Netanyahu reportedly spoke to Trump about the situation on Saturday, according to statements from both their offices.
Miller indicated that a ceasefire plan involving Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., which has been in the works for months, is no longer viable. He added that Hamas’ lack of central control complicates negotiations.
A plausible scenario, Miller suggested, would be an “all for all” deal—returning all hostages in exchange for an Israeli ceasefire. However, even this idea comes with many uncertainties.
Speaking on Monday, Deputy State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel emphasized that U.S. officials see a chance to “move the ball forward” on ceasefire talks but did not speculate on specific outcomes from the trip. He stressed the importance of engaging with both Israel and regional partners to seek solutions.
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