Bangladesh Polls May Shift Regional Power Balance

DHAKA (Web Desk) — Bangladesh’s upcoming general elections, scheduled for February 12, could significantly alter South Asia’s geopolitical landscape, as analysts point to a growing tilt toward China amid strained relations with India.

The polls will be the country’s first since a student-led uprising ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Tensions with New Delhi escalated after India granted shelter to Hasina despite extradition requests, angering the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. Since then, Dhaka has expanded diplomatic and strategic engagement with China and Pakistan.

Analysts say Bangladesh has become increasingly central to Beijing’s Bay of Bengal strategy. Yunus chose China for his first state visit, and both countries recently signed a defence agreement for a drone manufacturing facility near Bangladesh’s northern border. Experts believe deeper Bangladesh-China ties are likely regardless of the election outcome.

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Meanwhile, relations with India have remained uneasy. New Delhi has raised concerns over violence against minority communities, while Dhaka has accused India of exaggerating the issue. Despite sporadic diplomatic outreach, bilateral tensions flared again after a Bangladeshi cricketer’s removal from the Indian Premier League, prompting Bangladesh to withdraw from the T20 World Cup in India.

Observers note that both sides are likely to pursue pragmatism over confrontation. Alongside warming ties with Pakistan, Bangladesh is expected to balance relations with regional powers, maintaining trade with India while expanding infrastructure and defence cooperation with China. Analysts stress that stronger ties with Beijing do not necessarily mean hostility toward New Delhi, arguing that Bangladesh can sustain relations with both simultaneously.