Indian Water Bomb

(By: Abdul Basit Alvi)

The repeated, devastating flood events have glaringly highlighted the country’s insufficient water storage and flood management capacity. In recent years, climate change has made monsoon rains more erratic and intense, while accelerated glacial melt in the north feeds rivers with torrents that far exceed their natural carrying capacity. The catastrophic floods of 2022 and 2025 demonstrated this vulnerability on an apocalyptic scale, affecting tens of millions of people and causing economic damages estimated in the billions of rupees. The absence of adequate large-scale storage dams meant that these vast quantities of excess water could not be captured or regulated; instead, they simply rushed downstream uncontrollably, bringing widespread destruction rather than being harnessed as a valuable resource for future dry periods.

Compounding this environmental peril is the relentless geopolitical dimension of water aggression. As the upper riparian state controlling the headwaters of the Indus River system, India wields significant leverage over the volume and timing of the water that flows into Pakistan. This leverage has been used as a strategic tool to exert pressure. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in 2025 following the Pahalgam attack created an entirely new dimension of insecurity, formalizing the flow of water itself as an instrument of coercion. Pakistan has repeatedly alleged that India has either withheld critical hydrological data or deliberately released water from upstream dams without coordination or adequate warning. Such actions, whether politically motivated or justified as technical necessities, result in man-made disasters that amplify natural calamities, revealing Pakistan’s pressing and urgent need to establish autonomous control mechanisms through its own water infrastructure.

Therefore, building new dams is fundamentally about ensuring sovereign control over Pakistan’s most vital resource. With a rapidly growing population and an economy overwhelmingly dependent on agriculture, the country must maximize its capacity to store water during wet periods and release it in a managed way during seasons of scarcity. Pakistan’s current water storage capacity is alarmingly low, at only about 30 days’ worth of supply, which is far below the global average of 120 days and leaves the nation acutely vulnerable to both seasonal fluctuations and politically motivated upstream manipulations. Increasing storage through the timely completion of mega-dams like Diamer-Bhasha, Mohmand, and Dasu would provide a crucial buffer against water insecurity. It would grant Pakistan the ability to regulate river flows, attenuate flood peaks, and ensure a more even distribution of water for irrigation, drinking, and industrial uses throughout the year, thereby securing its agricultural backbone.

Moreover, these multi-purpose dams bring the indispensable benefit of energy security to a nation perennially trapped in cycles of electricity shortages and expensive power generation. Hydropower generated from these dams is a clean, renewable, and cost-effective alternative to the imported fossil fuels that currently strain the national economy and power grid. The Diamer-Bhasha Dam alone, upon completion, is expected to generate over 4,500 megawatts of electricity and store more than 8 million acre-feet of water. This would represent a monumental leap forward in Pakistan’s ability to combat both energy blackouts and agricultural droughts, providing a tremendous boost to economic productivity and national morale.

The critical function of flood mitigation cannot be overstated. A strategically located dam acts as a giant shock absorber for a river system, capturing excess water during periods of intense rainfall or accelerated glacial melt and preventing it from devastating downstream communities. Sophisticated controlled-release mechanisms ensure that water levels in rivers remain within safe limits, saving countless lives and protecting billions of dollars worth of infrastructure. In a country where a single flood event can displace millions and erase decades of developmental progress, such a safety net is literally invaluable. As climate change continues to accelerate glacial melt and increase the frequency of extreme weather events, the necessity of this proactive infrastructural defense becomes ever more urgent.

Well-conceived dam projects also offer long-term ecological and strategic benefits. They can facilitate the recharge of depleting aquifers, help mitigate land degradation, and preserve wetlands that act as natural buffers against environmental shocks. Strategically, a robust and independent dam network significantly reduces Pakistan’s dependency on unpredictable water inflows from across the border. It strengthens the country’s diplomatic hand in any future negotiations over water sharing and sends a clear message to all stakeholders, domestic and international, that Pakistan is determined and capable of charting its own sustainable and secure water future.

Of course, the construction of large dams is fraught with significant challenges—enormous financial costs, extended timelines, complex technical hurdles, environmental impact concerns, and the social imperative of fair community resettlement. These challenges, however, are not insurmountable. They can be effectively mitigated through transparent planning, international financing partnerships, rigorous and independent environmental impact assessments, and inclusive, compassionate resettlement policies that respect the rights and livelihoods of affected communities. With careful, ethical planning and strong international cooperation, the long-term national gains of water, food, and energy security far outweigh the initial costs.

Furthermore, the success of these projects hinges on parallel strengthening of institutional capacity and governance. Pakistan must address historical issues of bureaucratic delays, corruption, and overlapping mandates among its various water-related agencies. A cohesive, national water strategy that is scientifically grounded, data-driven, and coordinated across federal and provincial levels is essential to maximize the benefits of new infrastructure. Integrating dam construction with broader initiatives like scientific floodplain zoning, comprehensive catchment management, advanced early warning systems, and campaigns for agricultural water efficiency will ensure that the benefits of these monumental investments are multiplied across all sectors of the economy and society.

The construction of new dams in Pakistan is, therefore, not merely an infrastructural preference but a strategic compulsion. In the face of perceived water aggression and the recurring fury of climate-induced floods, dams offer a shield against existential uncertainty and a solid platform for national resilience. They are an answer to coercion, a remedy for devastation, and a foundation for long-term prosperity. Without such decisive investments, Pakistan risks remaining perpetually reactive—forever vulnerable to upstream manipulations and downstream disasters. With them, it can confidently chart a course toward true water security, energy independence, climate resilience, and geopolitical stability. The time for decisive action is now, not merely to survive, but to thrive in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.

Adding a deeply disturbing dimension to these geopolitical tensions, a video has surfaced featuring a retired high-ranking Indian Army official, Lieutenant General Kanwal Jeet Singh Dhillon, explicitly describing a strategy of using water as a weapon against Pakistan. In the interview, the retired general outlines a calculated plan to inflict damage on Pakistan by exploiting its downstream vulnerability. He describes a scenario where India uses its upstream control to suddenly release water without warning during periods of high flow, overwhelming Pakistan’s limited storage capacity and causing catastrophic flooding. Conversely, he also describes withholding water during critical summer months when crops are most parched, thereby crippling the agricultural sector. He explicitly states that the Indus Waters Treaty, being a bilateral agreement rather than a global one, would be manipulated at will, with water stopped and released according to strategic convenience rather than cooperative principle. This video is cited as clear evidence of heinous intentions, showcasing a mindset where water is not seen as a shared resource but as a tool of conflict.

Consequently, Pakistan confronts a dual threat of unprecedented scale: the overwhelming impact of climate change, which brings increasingly severe and frequent natural disasters, and the calculated water aggression from its eastern neighbor, which manipulates its vital water resources for strategic coercion. In the face of these converging challenges, the entire Pakistani nation stands unified behind its government and armed forces, resolved to employ every necessary measure to confront this immediate threat and avert future catastrophic losses, thereby safeguarding the nation’s sovereignty, security, and survival.

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