Tanveer Ilyas’s recent joining of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has reinforced the public perception that PPP is likely to form the next government in the 2026 elections. Reports also suggest that Barrister Sultan Mehmood is set to join the PPP. With the inclusion of Tanveer Ilyas and several other leaders, the PPP has already secured seventeen seats in the assembly. Should Sultan Mehmood also align with them, the number could further increase. It is speculated that PPP might reach a strength of 25 members in the House.
People are questioning why, despite the PML-N being in power at the center, individuals in Azad Kashmir are joining the PPP. This has raised serious concerns about the leadership of the PML-N in Azad Kashmir—questions the party must answer or risk losing its existing public support.
In the upcoming elections, PML-N and PPP will be the main contenders. The PPP enjoys the guidance of seasoned politicians such as Chaudhry Muhammad Yaseen, Chaudhry Latif Akbar, Sardar Yaqoob Khan, Sardar Qamar-uz-Zaman Khan, and Raja Faisal Mumtaz Rathore. The inclusion of Sardar Tanveer Ilyas adds a strong and opinionated voice to the PPP’s leadership. If Barrister Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry also joins, PPP would then have the support of nearly all of Azad Kashmir’s top-tier leadership. These figures not only hold sway within their respective clans but also enjoy wide public acceptance.
Leaders such as Barrister Chaudhry Majeed, Sultan Mehmood, and Chaudhry Yaseen command strong influence among the Jat community, most of whom are now aligned with PPP. Within the PML-N, the Jat representation is limited to Chaudhry Tariq Farooq. Similarly, Chaudhry Latif Akbar is highly revered within the Gujjar community and is seen as a spiritual figure in many parts. Many emerging second-tier leaders across Azad Kashmir are protégés of Latif Akbar. From Muzaffarabad to Bhimber, a majority of Gujjars appear aligned with PPP, leading to the widespread perception that PPP is essentially a party of the Gujjars and Jats.
Sardar Yaqoob, who has held two of the highest offices in Azad Kashmir, is a senior figure in the Sudhan community and is known for his grassroots, approachable style. His influence among the Sudhans is substantial. Similarly, Sardar Qamar-uz-Zaman and Sardar Tanveer Ilyas belong to the Mughal community and hold sway not only within their clan but also among the general populace. Known for their hospitality and down-to-earth approach, both leaders enjoy deep-rooted public connections. Raja Faisal Mumtaz Rathore is another young leader who has gained cross-communal popularity among the youth of Azad Kashmir.
This raises the question: Where does the PML-N stand in Azad Kashmir?
Raja Farooq Haider remains the only PML-N leader with wide public appeal. He commands respect not only among the Rajputs but across all major communities, including Sudhans, Jats, Gujjars, Syeds, Hashmis, and Mughals. His political ideology and principled approach have defined his five-year tenure, which will be remembered in golden words: the 13th Constitutional Amendment, abolition of the Kashmir Council, doubling of the development budget, implementation of NTS, reformation of the PSC, and more. While Tanveer Ilyas claims credit for local body elections, the groundwork was laid by Farooq Haider. If the parliamentary party had supported him at the time, he could have conducted these elections during his tenure. Still, the reorganization of union councils and the resolution of legal complications were all initiated under his leadership.
His historic speech on the Kashmir issue at the Convention Centre, in the presence of all Pakistani parliamentarians, remains etched in public memory. Many see him as a savior of the Kashmiri people. He also remained loyal to the Sharif family, even accompanying Nawaz Sharif’s convoy to Lahore with full protocol after Nawaz’s ousting. However, he is no longer the party president and holds no authority. The current PML-N leadership in Azad Kashmir is under Shah Ghulam Qadir—a mild-mannered, respectable, and intelligent man—but unfortunately lacking both a tribal base and public popularity in the region. He belongs to the refugee community residing in Pakistan and has been party president for the past three years, yet the senior leadership has never fully accepted him.
Even after three years, district and divisional organizational structures remain incomplete. Student and youth wings are also yet to be properly formed. It took two years just to nominate central office-bearers. Despite being an “organizational man,” Shah Ghulam Qadir failed to strengthen the party due to his weak control and influence. His perceived neglect of the Rajput community in organizational matters has also sparked resentment among them.
Under Shah Ghulam Qadir’s leadership, the party has suffered from internal factionalism. Several individuals apart from him are eyeing the office of Prime Minister and have formed their own cliques within the party. Due to the unclear stance on Anwar Haq’s government, the party’s morale has plummeted. Chaudhry Tariq Farooq’s repeated protests received no attention from Qadir, leading to his isolation within his own constituency. Raja Farooq Haider even filed a legal petition challenging the constitutional legitimacy of the current government, yet Qadir’s stance remained vague and incomprehensible to the public. While Shah Ghulam Qadir personally benefited from this government, the party was politically battered in all 28 constituencies of Azad Kashmir—leaving workers disheartened and demoralized.
During the public agitation led by the People’s Action Committee, Qadir remained conspicuously silent. As anti-Pakistan sentiment grew, and few dared to confront it, Raja Farooq Haider stood tall—challenging anti-state forces even in sensitive areas like Rawalakot and openly speaking in support of Pakistan. When characters like Zarnosh were maligning the state, Qadir failed to respond, while Farooq Haider once again defended the integrity of the state and Pakistan.
Similarly, during times of military tension with India, Raja Farooq Haider’s leadership was unparalleled. He waved his pistol in Muzaffarabad and rallied public support by addressing gatherings near the Line of Control. Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs Amir Muqam also deserves credit for risking his life to visit the LOC. The emotional moment when Farooq Haider welcomed him with pistol in hand uplifted the morale of the Kashmiri people.
Aside from Raja Farooq Haider, the PML-N lacks any credible leadership capable of competing with PPP’s towering figures. Chaudhry Tariq Farooq is disillusioned with Qadir’s policies. Raja Mushtaq Minhas, despite holding a party position due to his ties with the Sharif family, has become nearly irrelevant—even in his own constituency. Following Tanveer Ilyas’s entry into PPP, Qadir hastily inducted Tanveer’s brother Yasir Ilyas into PML-N. However, Yasir is an unknown figure in Azad Kashmir—primarily a businessman with no political background. While it may have impressed PM Shehbaz Sharif on paper, the public viewed it as a desperate reaction from a rattled party.
From Bhimber to Neelum, one can assess which leaders wield real influence and who are politically irrelevant. Interestingly, nearly every aspiring PML-N candidate is more inclined to approach Raja Farooq Haider than Shah Ghulam Qadir. This reveals that PML-N’s entire senior leadership considers Farooq Haider essential to their political success.
When a party is led by someone with no public appeal, no tribal backing, and poor decision-making, its chances of winning in the upcoming elections diminish significantly.
These elections are occurring in a context where Nawaz Sharif is no longer in power in Pakistan, where PML-N lacks a heavyweight political patron like Sardar Sikandar Hayat Khan, and where the party continues to face allegations linked to Form-47 election rigging. Meanwhile, PPP has grown stronger and is steadily shaping favorable public perception.
If PML-N faces a setback in the upcoming Azad Kashmir elections, the ramifications will not only affect the party’s position in Pakistan but could also negatively impact the Kashmir issue—especially after the military successes against India. This is a critical point the PML-N leadership must reflect upon.
If the PML-N leadership in Pakistan genuinely wishes to preserve its political dignity in Azad Kashmir, it must urgently reconsider its strategy and reorganize the party under the leadership of Raja Farooq Haider. Otherwise, it should be ready to face any consequences.
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