India has signed a 10-year contract for the management of the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar. The initial phase faced numerous delays due to various challenges. With the new contract, India plans to invest significantly in the port’s infrastructure and road networks through Afghanistan. This deal allows India to access Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia directly via the Arabian Sea, bypassing Pakistan.
A diplomatic setback:
The agreement between Iran and India on the development of Chabahar port, which includes Afghanistan, represents a significant diplomatic setback for Pakistan and poses strategic challenges for China. This deal has substantial economic and geopolitical implications that underscore the necessity for China and Pakistan to reassess and strengthen their regional strategies.
Economic and Strategic Setback
(i) Direct Route Bypass: Chabahar port offers India a strategic maritime link to Afghanistan and Central Asia, effectively bypassing Pakistan. This undermines Pakistan’s position as a primary transit route for Afghan trade and reduces its leverage over Afghanistan.
(ii) Competing Ports: The development of Chabahar poses direct competition to Pakistan’s Gwadar port, a key component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The rivalry between these two ports can potentially divert trade and investment from Gwadar, affecting its economic viability and strategic importance.
An Alert for China and Pakistan
The Iran-India deal on Chabahar port sends a clear and strategic message to both China and Pakistan. This agreement challenges their ambitions, particularly concerning CPEC and Gwadar port. The geopolitical implications necessitate an urgent and robust response from China and Pakistan to secure their interests in the region.
Strategic Implications
1. Shift in Trade Focus: Chabahar port threatens to shift the regional trade focus away from Gwadar, reducing reliance on Pakistani routes and diminishing Pakistan’s strategic leverage over regional trade.
2. Naval Base Potential: The development of Chabahar port can serve as a potential naval base for India, allowing it to project naval power in the Arabian Sea, countering China’s influence.
3. US Policy of Containment: The Chabahar deal aligns with the US strategy of containing China’s influence in the region, supporting India as a counterbalance to China and complicating China’s regional ambitions through CPEC.
The Way forward & Strategic Responses to the Deal
(i) Accelerating Gwadar and CPEC Projects
To counter the strategic advantages of Chabahar, China and Pakistan must expedite the development of Gwadar port and the broader CPEC framework. This includes accelerating infrastructure development, operationalizing the port, and initiating robust trade activities with Central Asia.
(ii) Strengthening Relations with Afghanistan
Afghanistan plays a pivotal role in the success of both Chabahar and Gwadar ports. China and Pakistan must work diligently to maintain strong and healthy relations with Afghanistan, engaging with the Afghan government, ensuring stability, and facilitating trade agreements that favor the use of Gwadar for regional trade routes.
(iii) Enhancing Economic Viability
For Gwadar to compete effectively with Chabahar, China and Pakistan need to ensure its economic viability. This includes providing incentives for businesses to use Gwadar, improving logistical efficiency, and creating a secure and attractive environment for international investors.
(iv) Diplomatic Engagement
Diplomatic efforts are crucial to counter the narrative and influence of Chabahar port. China and Pakistan should engage with regional partners and international stakeholders to highlight the strategic benefits of Gwadar and CPEC, emphasizing their potential for regional development and connectivity.
(v) Security Considerations
Ensuring the security of Gwadar and CPEC routes is paramount. This involves enhancing maritime security to protect trade routes, securing infrastructure from potential threats, and cooperating with regional security partners to maintain stability.
Conclusion
The Iran-India deal on Chabahar port presents strategic & economic challenges for both China and Pakistan, signaling the need for an urgent and coordinated response. By accelerating the development of Gwadar port and CPEC, strengthening ties with Afghanistan, and ensuring the economic and security viability of their projects, China and Pakistan can counter the strategic implications of the Chabahar agreement. Early and decisive action will be key to maintaining their regional influence and securing their long-term strategic interests in the face of this emerging challenge.
Azhar Mahmood Awan
PhD Scholar , President Educasa International
Azharmailbox1982@gmail.com
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