Stealth, Speed and Surveillance: The Trifecta of Modern Wars

The new geopolitical dynamics and the rapidly evolving technology have changed the pattern of warfare. In clearer terms, technological disruptions, ethical challenges, and geopolitical shifts have sparked curiosity and complexity in modern wars. In the recent air warfare between Pakistan and India, the world has seen an extensive use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in planning, surveillance, decision-making, and then destroying the targets with speed leaving the enemy confused and helpless. This pattern of warfare between the two South Asian neighbours was unique in the sense that cyber technology, AI, drones, and autonomous weapons made the conflicts quicker, targeted, and decisive.

Two thousand years ago, Sun Tzu, in his book Art of War, wrote: “Speed is the Essence of War.” His maxim is even more valid today because of technological advancement. The conflict between Pakistan and India was decided in just four days. Pakistan’s swift and decisive operation lasted for 16 hours. In an hour, Pakistan’s Air force shot down four Rafale jets. In 15 hours of counter arrack by Pakistan, the Indian will to retaliate became a dream because of the losses it suffered with the destruction of its air bases, hacking of its command-and-control system and jamming of its communications.

India did not have the latest update on our current strength and our capability to surprise them. This was the element of stealth that favoured Pakistan. Our military integrated technology, tactics, and human expertise, which enabled Pakistan to achieve surprise.

AI has emerged as a powerful weapon of war. It has revolutionized the electronic warfare element. On 10^th May conflict, Pakistan employed the KORAL ECM system to jam, confuse, and suppress the radars and other electronic systems, which rendered the enemy’s command and control system ineffective. At least 13 of Indian government websites with 1,744 servers were hacked. Their railway system collapsed; their grid stations were blown up. Mumbai suffered a power breakdown. Their dams’ doors were opened. All this thoroughly confused the Indian military high command. India was worried about what had happened. It did not understand what Pakistan was going to do. AI has transformed warfare.

“Whoever becomes the leader in Artificial Intelligence will become the ruler of the world,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin’s remarks reflect the belief that the future of the world lies in the hands of technology, especially AI. Henceforth, the future wars will be the cyber wars. Whoever captures cyberspace will defeat the enemy swiftly and decisively. Cyberwars are built on espionage, subversion and sabotage. A country that is weak in cybersecurity and whose computer systems are not hardened and resilient will be a victim of cyber-attacks. An adversary determined to break its opponent’s will to fight can subdue him by attacking his command, control and communication (C3). The victim will be overwhelmed by attacking his financial resources, power grids, water supplies and communication systems. This will completely demoralize the population in no time. An adversary rich in cyber warfare will win the war without taking it to the battlefield.

In an unpublished working paper, Brumley wrote in 2016: “Make no mistakes, cyber is a war between attackers and defenders, both who coevolve as the other deploys new systems and measures. In order to win, we must act, react and evolve faster than our adversaries. Cyber weapons of the future, defensive and offensive, will incorporate greater autonomy, just the same way that more autonomy is being integrated into missiles, drones, and physical systems like Aegis”. (Quoted by Paul Sharre in his book, Army of None).

Loitering ammunition, semi-autonomous and fully autonomous weapons have completely transformed modern warfare. Autonomous weapons have the capability to locate and eliminate targets without human intervention. The Israeli Harpy is one such autonomous weapon that carries a high explosive warhead and can detect, attack, and destroy radar emitters. Paul Sharre writes: “Harpy has been sold to several countries, including Chile, China, India, South Korea, and Turkey. Chinese are reported to have reverse engineered their own version”. Stuart Russel, in his book titled, Human Compatible Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control, also refers to the Israeli Harpy a loitering ammunition with a 10 feet wingspan carrying a 50-pound warhead with a range of 500 km, which searches for up to six hours in a given geographical region for any target that meats a given criterion and then destroys it. India employed about 80 such drones to attack targets in Pakistan, but those were shot down by Pakistan.

What next? Although India and Pakistan are reported to have agreed to redeploy their forces back to peace time locations along the line of control in Kashmir, India would definitely embark upon redeeming its bruised image as a rising regional power. There is 0.9 probability that India will launch a massive and surprise attack on Pakistan. Therefore, it is imperative that we do not lower our guard. We must allocate massive resources to strengthen our air power, missiles, autonomous weapon system, Navy, the land forces, and keep pace with evolving technologies like AI and cyber warfare. We are now up against an unpredictive enemy. When India tested its atomic weapon in 1974, late Mr. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had said: “we will match the Indian capability and spare resources for it even if we have to eat grass or go hungry”. Later, Mr. Nawaz Sharif authorized the testing of our nuclear weapons in 1998 despite strong pressure from the USA, who even offered five billion dollars as aid for not going ahead with the explosion. On an occasion, Quaid-i- Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah had said: “the weak and defenseless, in this imperfect world. invite aggression from others. The best way we can serve the cause of peace is by removing the temptation from the path of those who may think that we are weak and, therefore. they can bully or attack us. That temptation can only be removed if we make ourselves so strong that nobody dares entertain any aggressive designs against us”. However, it does not mean that the stronger has the right to target the weaker for no reason.

(The writer is a Senior Advisor Emeritus at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute Islamabad.)