Pakistan’s Floods: Bad Governance Or Natural Disaster?

To answer this question in the present, we must first consider the past.
Sara Naseer, LUMS Law School
2010  floods ravaged massive swathes of land in Pakistan. July and August witnessed rainfall that was 70% and 102% above normal, respectively, all over the country. Rivers rose, flooding the surrounding areas, and a dam failure in Sindh caused River Indus to carve out an alternative path where it merged with Manchhar Lake resulting in flood water submerging thousands of square kilometers worth of land. The heavy monsoon rains eventually ceased, but many areas of land remained submerged for months afterward, destroying homes, crops, and livestock. Approximately 18 million people were affected and 1000 died.
Scientists studying climate change patterns at the time concluded that Pakistan’s floods were the result of a stagnant weather pattern in the atmosphere, called a blocking event, which does not allow the normal movement of weather systems from west to east. In simple terms, this atmospheric blocking resulted in Pakistan’s floods. While this blocking event may have caused the heavy rains that lead to widespread flooding, the role of human factors in the disaster can’t be overlooked.
Enduring deforestation left little vegetation to absorb water or stop its course once it started flowing. Dams and levees constructed by the government to direct water from the Indus River to people residing downstream, were not well-maintained and the levees acted like barriers that prevented floodwater from receding once a channel had overflown. Despite full knowledge of these challenges for over a decade, the government had done nothing to fix them after the 2010 floods. In addition to annual monsoon rains, while Pakistan contributes only 1% to global warming, it is disproportionately vulnerable to its effects: as earth heats up and glaciers melt, low-lying areas bear the brunt.
12 years later, in 2022, Pakistan is in the same situation once again: nearly 1500 people have died; more than 2 million acres of cultivated land have been destroyed alongside almost 800,000 livestock; 569,000 homes have been destroyed and 1.2 million more have been severely damaged. Pakistan’s government failed its people in 2010 and has done so again in 2022. No new dams have been constructed recently and projects like the Kurram Tangi and Basha Dams have been on the backburner for years. The dams and levees already present are not well maintained and are unable to stop the flow of floodwater. Deforestation remains rampant and little is being done to revegetate flayed land. There are no flood warnings and no timely relocation of those at risk. And paradoxically, while a third of the country is presently submerged, many areas have been, and continue to be faced with a severe shortage of drinking water.
Climate patterns and severe rainfall may not be under our control, but no excuse is good enough for the negligence that caused these floods to balloon out of control. While rehabilitation efforts are presently underway in full force, the fact remains that a large part of this destruction was completely avoidable and that prevention would’ve strained the country’s already dire economy much less than reconstruction. As the rainfall slows down and life begins a slow trudge back to normalcy for the affectees, we can only hope that next time, things will be different.

By Sara Naseer, LUMS Law School