The Pakistan Agriculture sector has long been the backbone of its economy, feeding millions of people, supporting livelihoods, and generating export revenues. According to the World Bank’s 2024 report, agriculture employs approximately 37.4% of Pakistan’s labor force and contributes around 24% to the national GDP. But today backbone is dangerously close to collapse. With issues like climate change, water scarcity, rising input costs, and policy inaction, Pakistan is heading towards a severe food crisis and nationwide drought in the coming decades.
Agriculture isn’t just an economic sector, it’s a lifeline for 80% of the population. According to Pakistan’s Federal Committee on Agriculture, wheat production has dropped by 11% this year and 13% according to the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). According to my survey with several farmers, one kanal of land (roughly 0.125 acres) should yield at least 3 mounds of wheat. But this year, the average is barely 1 mound, a catastrophic drop. For a country already facing 36.9% food insecurity, this is a red flag.
Ijaz Ahmed, A small farmer in Chakwal, shared that his land, which once yielded 200 mounds of wheat from 50 kanal, produced only 60 mounds this year. In Talagang, a farmer reported that their land did not even produce 1 kg this year due to severe water shortages. Another farmer from Talagang says that people are abandoning their fields, their homes. If this continues, soon, the land will turn barren.
Water scarcity is the single biggest threat. Agriculture in Pakistan uses nearly 90% of the country’s freshwater, mostly from the Indus River system. Yet storage capacity is shockingly inadequate. From the Indus, we could potentially save 144-155 million acre-feet (MAF) of water, but our current capacity is just 6.4 MAF, enough for only 30 days. The Jhelum could offer 23–24 MAF, but we can store just 7.4 MAF. The Chenab has almost zero storage capacity. This means over 180 MAF of water is wasted annually due to inadequate infrastructure. In a country already facing chronic water stress, this is unacceptable. If storage and irrigation inefficiencies aren’t fixed, Pakistan could face nationwide drought in the next 10–15 years.
High input costs are suffocating farmers. Fertilizers, seeds, and petrol are becoming unaffordable. Many can’t irrigate their land, apply fertilizer properly, or even plant for the next season. Some are planning to skip the next harvest altogether, citing losses and lack of government support. Farmers are protesting across the country, but the policy response remains weak. Meanwhile, wheat prices have plummeted. A record 2024-25 harvest and excessive imports led to oversupply. When the government abandoned the domestic support price policy, prices crashed. As of March 2025, wheat was selling for $245 per ton, 35% less than last year. Flour remains expensive, but the farmers aren’t seeing the profits.
Adding to the crisis is the alarming loss of agricultural land. Since the early 2000s, housing societies have rapidly expanded, swallowing up fertile farmland. With each new development, we lose not just land, but a future of food and security. If urban sprawl continues unchecked, Pakistan could face severe food shortages within the next 15 to 20 years. The warning signs are clear. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has already alerted authorities to dry conditions. If water storage isn’t increased and farming practices don’t modernize, we risk large-scale drought and hunger.
Farmers across Pakistan are already living this nightmare. Without subsidies, without water, without profit, they are being pushed out of the very fields that have sustained them for generations. Agriculture contributes up to 24% of the GDP and drives 80% of agro-based exports. If the sector collapses, the entire economy could follow. How long can we afford to import wheat? How will we feed a population that’s already facing food insecurity? These are not distant questions. They are urgent, and they demand action.
Pakistan must complete the Diamer Bhasha and Dasu dams and urgently revisit the stalled Kalabagh Dam. We need a nationwide push for climate-smart agriculture, public awareness campaigns, better crop planning, and strong policy support. This is a make-or-break moment. The fields are sending a clear message: ignore us, and the hunger will spread from village to city. The question now is not whether the backbone will break, it’s whether there’s anything left to save?
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