DHAKA – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina had previously overlooked the democratic declines in each other’s countries to build a strong relationship. With Hasina now out of power, India’s concerns about the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority seem hypocritical.
When Agontuk, a 21-year-old architecture student in Dhaka, first came across social media posts about attacks on Bangladesh’s Hindu community, his immediate reaction was to check on a building in his Dhaka neighborhood where many Hindu residents live.
Agontuk had been part of the student movement that ousted Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister. However, after a harsh crackdown that resulted in over 300 deaths, he chose to avoid street protests. Instead, he joined a team of student volunteers who used their tech expertise to evade online surveillance and navigate internet blackouts to attract international media attention to their cause.
Agontuk emphasized that targeting Bangladeshi Hindus was never the aim of their movement. The reports of “pogroms” and even claims of “genocide” against the Hindu minority were deeply concerning.
“I was taken aback because our country generally lives in harmony. We don’t want chaos or anarchy among us. Once we heard these reports, we sought to verify their authenticity,” the architecture student said in a phone interview from Dhaka.
Hours after Sheikh Hasina’s removal from power on August 5, Agontuk checked on the Hindu residential building in Dhaka’s Nobinbag neighborhood and found it to be quiet. “There hadn’t been any attacks in the area,” he said. “Over the following days, I continued to monitor the building, spoke with residents and local shopkeepers, and everything seemed fine.”
As news of attacks on Hindu temples and businesses spread, primarily through social media and mainstream Indian TV channels, Agontuk stayed in touch with friends and contacts throughout the city and the country. “I communicate with them daily. They also reported that they are monitoring temples in their areas and have confirmed that there have been no incidents,” he added.
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Shortly after Sheikh Hasina’s escape to India, celebrations turned into violence as crowds attacked members of her Awami League party and targeted symbols of her family’s political legacy, such as statues and a museum honoring her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman.
Hindus, who make up around 8% of Bangladesh’s nearly 170 million population, are the largest religious minority in the Muslim-majority country. Traditionally supportive of the Awami League, they found themselves at risk during the unrest.
In the week following Hasina’s departure, the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council reported at least 200 attacks on Hindus and other religious minorities across the country.
Determining the exact numbers and motivations behind the violence has been challenging. The police, already unpopular with students for their role in the crackdown on protesters, faced their own casualties and went on a weeklong strike after Hasina’s flight.
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In the chaotic aftermath, rumors and misinformation fueled fears among minorities. Social media exacerbated the confusion, with fact-checkers finding old images and unverified claims being circulated, often traced to bots and trolls from neighboring India.
Religion, a historic fault line on the Indian subcontinent and a factor in the division of British India into modern South Asian states, became a focal point once again.
Amidst the genuine fears of Bangladeshi Hindus and the surge of misinformation from India, a diplomatic struggle for power, influence, and resources unfolded.
Hasina’s fall has highlighted a complex geopolitical game in South Asia, which the international community had previously ignored but must now confront due to the Bangladeshi uprising, known as the “Gen Z revolution,” which has reshuffled diplomatic dynamics.
“Monsoon Revolution” for Everyone
The severity of the social unrest was quickly recognized by Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel Laureate who has taken on the role of chief adviser in a transitional government until elections are held.
Upon arriving in Dhaka from Paris, where he was attending the Olympic Games, Yunus emphasized the restoration of order as his top priority. He met with Hindu community members at the Dhakeshwari National Temple, the country’s largest Hindu shrine, calling for patience and support in his government’s efforts to ensure equal rights and protections for all Bangladeshi citizens.
Many Bangladeshi students and civil society members are actively working to maintain order and safeguard minority rights. Social media, particularly Instagram, is filled with images of students protecting temples across Bangladesh.
Shafqat Munir, a senior fellow at the Dhaka-based Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, stressed the importance of inclusivity and plurality as Bangladesh moves forward in the post-Hasina era.
“While we have seen unfortunate attacks on minority groups, it is crucial to recognize that there is a lot of disinformation circulating,” he said. “For Bangladesh and its people, even a single incident is too many. This revolution, which I refer to as the Monsoon Revolution, must be for all Bangladeshis, regardless of their faith. It is vital that no group or individual is targeted because of their religion.”
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Jamaat-e-Islami has never secured a parliamentary majority in Bangladesh’s 53-year history, though it has occasionally formed alliances with the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Known simply as Jamaat, the party was banned on August 1, after Sheikh Hasina accused the BNP and Jamaat of being responsible for deaths during anti-quota protests.
Both the BNP and Jamaat deny any involvement in the deadly violence leading up to Hasina’s removal. On Tuesday, a Bangladeshi court launched a murder investigation against Hasina and six members of her administration over the killing of a man amid the unrest.
Bangladeshi student leaders have consistently expressed a desire for fundamental change and shown distrust toward the country’s major political parties, including the Awami League, BNP, and Jamaat.
Their choice to appoint Muhammad Yunus, a respected economist, to lead an interim administration indicates their wish to break away from a political landscape long dominated by the Awami League and BNP.
Sheikh Hasina’s decline was years in the making. Although protests against a controversial government quota system acted as the trigger for her downfall, public dissatisfaction had been growing since she secured her fourth consecutive term in the January 7 elections.
The US State Department described the parliamentary elections as “neither free nor fair.” Nevertheless, regional powers India and China swiftly extended congratulations to the 76-year-old incumbent once again.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s praise for Hasina’s victory was particularly effusive. Despite numerous reports criticizing the election as “banned and boycotted,” Modi congratulated both Hasina and the Bangladeshi people.
“I also congratulate the people of Bangladesh for the successful conduct of elections. We are committed to further strengthening our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh,” Modi wrote in a post on X.
This rhetoric starkly contrasted with the reality on the ground. “India over-invested in Hasina and under-invested in Bangladesh,” said Salil Tripathi, author of The Colonel Who Would Not Repent: The Bangladesh War and Its Unquiet Legacy.
“New Delhi placed all its bets on one basket, which, from a geostrategic perspective, does not seem very wise,” Tripathi commented.
“Exploiting Bangladesh”
New Delhi and Dhaka have traditionally enjoyed strong relations due to their shared history. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, became part of Pakistan in 1947 when British India was divided into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan.
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Bangladesh gained independence in 1971 after a war with Pakistan, aided by Indian military intervention.
Since the 1970s, India had relied on the small, impoverished Bangladesh while focusing on conflicts with Pakistan and China, engaging in wars and border skirmishes with its two neighbors.
With linguistic and cultural ties linking Bangladesh to India’s West Bengal, India had a significant soft power advantage with its eastern neighbor.
However, the dynamics shifted after the rise of Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP party in 2014.
In 2019, the Modi government introduced controversial citizenship laws criticized as anti-Muslim. The BJP’s harsh anti-migrant rhetoric, including Home Minister Amit Shah’s notorious description of Bangladeshi migrants as “termites” during a West Bengal election rally, intensified tensions.
Modi’s visit to Dhaka in March 2021, to celebrate Bangladesh’s 50th anniversary, was marred by anti-Modi protests that resulted in 12 deaths, creating a significant embarrassment for Hasina’s government.
After Hasina’s victory in the January election, a growing “India Out” campaign on social media called for a boycott of Indian goods. By February, shop owners in Dhaka and other cities reported a decline in sales of some Indian products, according to the Voice of America.
Minority Rights and Hypocrisy
Experts on South Asia often highlight India’s longstanding stance on protecting minorities in its neighboring countries, such as the Tamils in Sri Lanka and Hindus in Bangladesh. However, Salil Tripathi points out that the Modi administration’s shift toward promoting a Hindu nation has compromised this core principle of Indian foreign policy.
Tripathi questions how India can advocate for the rights of minorities abroad while neglecting its own minority communities. “Experts discuss India’s historical commitment to protecting minorities in Bangladesh, but it’s perplexing how India manages its own treatment of minorities, especially Muslims,” Tripathi said.
Bangladeshi analysts, while aware of India’s domestic challenges regarding minority rights, are currently focused on their country’s transition. Shafqat Munir emphasizes that for Bangladesh to achieve stability and economic progress, a constructive relationship with its larger neighbor is crucial. “Most Bangladeshis desire a strong, pragmatic relationship with India. Given our geographical and geopolitical realities, it’s essential that this relationship isn’t dictated by political changes,” Munir stated.
For this relationship to thrive, Munir argues that New Delhi must reassess its approach. “India needs to overcome the perception in Dhaka that it was too closely aligned with a single regime. It must recognize that Sheikh Hasina’s era has ended and adjust its stance accordingly,” he explained.
The situation is further complicated by Hasina’s presence in India following her resignation on August 5 after weeks of protests. Analysts suggest that India could face diplomatic challenges if Dhaka formally requests her extradition. A potential solution could involve sending Hasina to a third country, possibly a Gulf state with friendly ties to India.
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However, many Bangladeshi student protesters fear that Hasina might return, which adds to their anxiety. Agontuk, a student from Dhaka, shared his concerns: “I’ve kept my identity hidden due to security risks. Even though Hasina has left, her associates and supporters remain in Bangladesh and continue to monitor us.”
Bangladesh’s path forward is fraught with challenges. On August 15, marking the anniversary of a military coup that led to the assassination of Hasina’s father, political tensions in Dhaka were high. Protests turned violent as demonstrators clashed with Hasina’s supporters.
While revolutions often lead to subsequent violence and setbacks, Agontuk remains hopeful. “The core goal of our protests was to secure a better future for Bangladeshi students. We remain optimistic and hopeful for a brighter future for our country,” he said.
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