Decoding Pakistan’s 2024 Elections and the Evolution of Political Landscape
Islamabad: The recent electoral events in Pakistan have instigated a seismic paradigm shift, challenging the conventional oligarchic grip on politics and indicating a shift towards a more inclusive and democratic electoral milieu, departing from an era where political triumph was synonymous with affluence, lineage, and the endorsement of the ‘establishment’. By disrupting the long-standing dynamics of vote manipulation and elite predominance, these elections suggest a new epoch wherein the collective voice of the broader society—encompassing the impoverished, the middle class, and the educated—can substantially sway political discourse and outcomes. This evolution towards a merit-centric political system, less shackled by favoritism and elitism, portends a propitious future for Pakistan’s democratic institutions and the societal fabric, manifesting a more diverse and equitable representation of the people’s aspirations.
The electoral results in Pakistan have also contested and overturned a deeply entrenched narrative: that a political entity like PTI, devoid of ‘electables’, estranged from establishment support, and confronted by opposition from state institutions, would inevitably flounder and confront obliteration. In contrast to these anticipations, the elections have unequivocally shown that it is feasible for a party to secure triumph without the traditional foundations of establishment backing. This breakthrough is particularly poignant, underscoring that individuals from less privileged segments, the middle class, and the educated populace can attain electoral success without resorting to extensive financial resources or leveraging influential connections. This collective awakening to the potency of the ballot signifies a momentous stride towards democratizing political involvement, heralding an era where authentic change is propelled by the electorate’s collective will, transcending the barriers of wealth, gender, and institutional influence.
The elections of 2024, among other implications, underscore a crucial point: any party aligning itself with undemocratic assumptions will not go unpunished. PML(N), during the PDM coalition, employed undemocratic means to surpass its adversary. They harbored intentions not to fortify democracy but to imprison the Chairman of PTI, coerce PTI leaders into relinquishing politics or joining another party, and incarcerate thousands of workers. They portrayed all these undemocratic acts as their paramount victory, oblivious to the fact that it was tarnishing their image as a political party and transforming them into an undemocratic entity. The PML(N) also bore the consequences of bringing back Nawaz Sharif by disregarding the rule of law and subduing the judiciary, sacrificing their political capital. Their apparent gains were projected as their greatest achievement, oblivious to the fact that the ground had shifted beneath their feet. Additionally, bringing back Nawaz Sharif home entailed zero risk for him and, in return, rendered the government, the country, and its people beholden to the establishment. This bestowed a pivotal role upon the establishment in key institutions and handed over control of major and sensitive entities like NADRA, PTA, and NAB, combining their power to ransom the soul of the people, economy, and politics, precipitating unprecedented inflation and misery for the people of Pakistan.
The elections of 2024, among other revelations, emphasize that a party heavily reliant on using state power to remain in control, assuming that political issues can be managed through force, will not go unpunished. This harsh lesson was imparted to PML(N) when it unleashed disproportionate force on participants of PTI’s long march and protests, including women, elderly individuals, and children. The suffering of the protestors was callously circulated in traditional and social media as a deterrent to those participating in the protests and those at home contemplating the use of fundamental rights such as assembly, freedom of speech, and peaceful protests.
On the opposite side of the spectrum was PTI, both its leaders and the party, emerging as resolute entities with steadfast leaders and loyal workers. They bravely faced state brute power and, instead of resorting to violence, opted for constitutional, legal, and political means to pursue their objectives. They eschewed ‘electables’ and appointed completely unknown, educated individuals as candidates. Consequently, unlike PML(N), which was penalized in the elections, the truncated PTI and its candidates were rewarded with substantial political capital in proportion to what PML(N) lost.
In the PDM government, unlike PML(N), the PPP played shrewdly. It shifted economic, financial, and law and order challenges to PML(N), avoiding ministries related to the economy, planning, law and order, and abstaining from endorsing state aggression against PTI. This strategic move saved its political capital, rewarding the PPP with exceptional and surpassing performance in the 2024 elections, establishing itself as the second-largest national party after PTI.
Post-2024 elections, PPP has once again displayed political acumen. It astutely opted for all constitutional posts—presidency, senate chairman, Speaker of the National Assembly, governors, and similar positions—in exchange for supporting PML(N)’s candidate for the position of premiership while staying clear of the government. This maneuver trapped the power-hungry PML(N) into forming the government in the center, ensuring that PML(N) loses whatever little political capital it has left. With only 79 seats, PML(N) accepted the premiership, disregarding the costs in terms of political capital loss for the party and the potential repercussions for the country and its people. Whether it is Nawaz, Shahbaz, or Maryam, PML(N) is likely to be a party that will lose whatever political capital it has left until the next elections.
The 2024 elections in Pakistan unequivocally signify a transformative shift in the political landscape, emphasizing the electorate’s rejection of undemocratic practices and the misuse of state power for political gain. Parties like PTI, prioritizing constitutional, legal, and peaceful means, have been vindicated, emerging stronger and more politically capitalized, while those resorting to oppressive measures faced a decisive rebuff from the voters. This electoral verdict not only reaffirms the resilience of Pakistan’s democracy but also underscores the evolving political acumen of its populace, demonstrating a clear preference for governance rooted in democratic principles, transparency, and accountability. As the dust settles, the lessons of these elections resonate deeply, heralding a new era where political legitimacy is earned through adherence to democratic norms and respect for the electorate’s mandate, setting a precedent for future political contests in Pakistan.
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