Climate Change in Pakistan

Pakistan is characterized by diverse topography, ecosystems, and climate zones. Rich in natural resources such as fertile agricultural land, natural gas reserves and mineral deposits, Pakistan faces the challenge of balancing competing goals between economic development and environmental protection. A semi-industrial country, Pakistan has undergone a process from a primarily agricultural to a mainly service-based economy (services accounted for her 53.66% of GDP in 2011-2021). As of 2019, agriculture remains the largest employer, employing 42.6% of the workforce. As of 2021-2022, about 39.2% of the population still lives below the national poverty line, and 12.90% of the population (2021-2022) continues to go hungry. Most of Pakistan’s 220.9 million people (2020) live along the Indus River, an area hit by severe flooding in July and August. Severe earthquakes are also common in the mountainous northern and western regions.
Pakistan faces a rate of warming well above the global average, and baseline could rise from 1.3°C to 4.9°C by the 2090s. Increases in annual maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be greater than increases in average temperatures, potentially increasing pressures on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems. An increase in the number of people affected by flooding is projected, with about 5 million more people exposed to extreme river flooding between 2035 and 2044, and more coastal flooding between 2070 and 2100. about 1 million more people could be exposed each year. Projections show falling crops for many key food and crops, including cotton, wheat, sugar cane, lemon, and rice. Rising temperatures are likely to weigh heavily on city residents and those working outdoors, potentially increasing the risk of heat-related illness and death from all emission pathways.
The Government of Pakistan has established a Ministry of Climate Change and released his second National Climate Change Communication in 2019. The National Climate Change Policy recognizes that Pakistan is working on strategies aimed at saving energy, improving energy efficiency, and optimizing fuel mix. Pakistan ratified the Paris Agreement on 10 November 2016 and submitted its 2016 country contributions to the UNFCCC. Also Pakistan and the World Bank on January 4, 2022 signed a Rs, 22 billion ($124.6 million) agreement for increased forestation and conservation of ecosystem to tackle climate change challenges in the South Asian country,
Pakistan faces the highest level of disaster risk in the world, ranking 18th out of 191 countries in 2020. This risk ranking is determined especially by the risk of a country exposed to earthquakes and the risk of internal conflict. However, Pakistan is also prone to river, lightning, and coastal flooding (8th overall), as well as some tropical cyclones and related disasters (40th overall) and droughts (43rd overall). It is Pakistan’s disaster risk is also caused by its social vulnerability. Pakistan’s vulnerability ranking (37th) is determined by its high multidimensional poverty rate. Pakistan has a slightly better coping capacity (rank 59).
Pakistan regularly experiences some of the hottest maximum temperatures in the world, with an average monthly maximum temperature of about 27°C and an average June maximum temperature of 38.48°C. Heatwaves can occur anywhere in Pakistan. The current annual average probability of occurring is about 3%. It is estimated that more than 65,000 people were hospitalized with heatstroke during the 2015 heat wave in Pakistan, leaving a large portion of the population at risk. Temperatures above 38°C occur annually in many parts of Pakistan as weather patterns converge, causing prolonged heatwaves that can have serious impacts on human health. Pakistan is estimated to have experienced approximately six heat waves per year. An upward trend can be seen. A severe heat wave in 2015 led to more than 1,200 heat-related deaths, most of them in Sindh province. Both Karachi and Lahore have been identified as the most vulnerable cities to increasing extreme heat, currently considered heatwaves and at high risk of death, even with lower emission pathways. Temperatures occur regularly.
A study by the World Bank Group suggests that slow-onset climate change will lead to an estimated 17-36 million internal climate-change migrants by 2050 in South Asia. The range of this estimate reflects different future development paths with varying emission reduction levels and uneven development outcomes. Climate-related disasters affect humanity in many areas, including agricultural production, food security, water management, and public health. A group’s magnitude of impact and coping strategies depend heavily on socioeconomic status, sociocultural norms, access to resources, poverty, and gender. Much of the projected climate change could strangely affect the poorest groups in society. Hard work is generally the minimum wage and has the highest risk of productivity loss due to heat stress.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 46 million people in Pakistan will be at risk of getting malaria by 2070 under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). However, if global emissions are significantly reduced, this number is estimated to be about 12 million by 2070. Diarrhea-related deaths are projected to decline significantly by 2050, but the proportion of deaths attributed to climate change is expected to rise from 11.7% in 2030 to 17% by 2050. Predicted.
At the end of this article, all rights-based deep decarbonization plans aimed at achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, in line with Article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement. proposed to be created by the country of It offers actionable recommendations for four main categories of behavior.
• Fighting society’s dependence on fossil fuels.
• Accelerate other relief efforts.
• Better customization to protect vulnerable people.
• Increase climate finance.
HAMNA MASOOD
DEPARTMENT OF IR
FATIMA JINNAH WOMEN UNIVERSITY